To represent a significant technological advancement within the automotive industry, an invention usually influences the fundamental operation of a motorcar or the way in which cars are developed and built. In the past, noteworthy improvements have included the internal combustion engine, assembly line, radial tires, and even airbags. In our current world of information-based technology, we're seeing the likes of navigation systems and satellite radios alter automobiles. Neat? Sure. Something you would call the neighbor over to see? Maybe. But I personally don't believe a fancy map or radio necessarily qualifies as a groundbreaking technological advancement.
One innovation that's currently making headlines and is actually likely to have a lasting legacy in one form or another, however, is the hybrid automobile. While only three hybrid models from as many manufacturers are currently available (Chevy's Pickup/Generator combo with extra outlets doesn't count), all producers are keeping an eye on their sales and, if nothing else, are wiping the dust off the plans for introducing that scrapped diesel model.
The environmental question as it applies to the hybrid appears to be rather cyclical, rearing its head under particularly ripe political and economic conditions -- one of which we are currently up to our necks in. I recently read an article reporting that the price of a barrel of crude topped out at the end of last week at $47, versus $27 this week one year ago, yet our U.S. reserves last year were actually less than what we currently hold. As a matter of fact, when the price didn't reach the somewhat symbolic $50 level, there was a major sell off pushing the price back down to the low $40s where it now stands. Our oil consumption certainly didn't decrease over the last year (suggesting that a nominal price increase would be expected), but if the prices can be influenced to this degree by mere sentiment and speculation, it does seem there are certain market and political conditions temporarily holding prices at these levels.
So is the Honda Insight, Toyota Prius, or Ford Escape the answer to all of our problems, or simply another hubris from the leading manufacturers jumping on the Greenpeace bandwagon?
As usual, it depends.
Switch on any Hollywood award ceremony pre-show and you'll see a growing number of hybrids weaving their way in and out of the limousine lines as they drop off the supposedly more environmentally conscious celebrities at the foot of the (surely all-natural fiber) red carpet. Now, some of these wannabes might have a clue (I once saw a program highlighting the use of naturally renewable wood and solar panels in the third home of a certain former Seinfeld star on the Pacific Coast Highway), and I'm all for new technologies that decrease our dependence on polluting fossil fuels. But if you're going to wait more than six months to pay $5,000 over sticker for a $20,000 Toyota, you had better know the whole story.
Picking on the Toyota for just a minute, the manufacturer says the EPA estimates 60/city and 51/highway for a combined 55 mpg. First of all these numbers are estimates, and optimistic ones at that. The observed numbers on the Prius from the Web sites and accounts that I have read have ranged from the high 30s to the mid 40s – excellent ratings by all standards, but a far cry from the quoted range. Even Toyota suggests the estimates can differ significantly from what is actually seen, as driver habits and specific conditions affect the car's performance.
OK, so the fuel efficiency may not be what it's cracked up to be. It isn't the first time a car manufacturer didn't quite deliver on what was promised. So what about cost? Toyota, Honda, and Ford cite today's high fuel costs and the "affordable" prices of their cars in conjunction with the environmental benefits (low fuel, emissions, etc.) as justification for signing on. They make it seem as though operating one of these cars will cost less than a similarly equipped competitor.
Guess again.
When one considers the premium one has to pay for a Prius (up to $5,000 in several markets), for example, and then adds the actual fuels costs as observed by current owners, the cost per mile over the life of the car is actually more than a Honda Civic with a traditional gasoline powered engine. Some analysts have pegged the additional cost of the hybrid at up to 35 percent more than comparably equipped vehicles. I have also heard discussion about the production (and disposal) of the unique Nickel-Metal Hydride battery and its environmental implications/costs, not to mention its higher maintenance and repair bills.
Hold on now, you're thinking: first you tell me it's not much more efficient than currently available gasoline technology and now you're saying it doesn't provide all the net environmental benefits suggested by Hollywood's tree-hugging finest? You got it. And yet, I think few would disagree with the statement that hybrid technology as a whole is a good thing and is likely here to stay, again, in one form or another.
As our society becomes more global, fuel efficiency and, more importantly, environmentalism will become even more important socioeconomic and political factors, meaning that this might not be just a fad. If nothing else, the overwhelming success of some of these hybrids and their associated tax breaks have all manufacturers changing gears again to create more efficient diesel, gasoline, electric, and even hydrogen technologies with the hope of putting costs per mile below the currently attainable $0.20 per mile (including ownership + fuel, over 100,000 mile lifespan, not including insurance). Think about that the next time you go to fill up your Escalade at $0.70 per mile – not including maintenance.
To view an interesting discussion of hybrid technology, click here.
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